PENENTUAN PREDIKTOR UNTUK PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN BULANAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING

Authors

  • Dodo Gunawan Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG)
  • Utoyo Ajie Linarka Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v12i1.89

Keywords:

statistical downscaling, dynamical downscaling, Singular Value DecompisitionCCAM

Abstract

Pemilihan prediktor terbaik untuk curah hujan di 15 pos pengamatan di Indramayu telah dilakukan menggunakan metode statistical downscaling. Teknik Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) yang diaplikasikan pada metode ini menggunakan data curah hujan bulanan dari GPCP dan CMAP, serta data tekanan udara, precipitable water, tekanan udara permukaan laut, suhu, dan komponen angin zonal luaran NCEP/NCAR reanalisis sebagai input. Dari metode ini diperoleh hasil bahwa  angin zonal adalah prediktor terbaik untuk memprediksi rata-rata curah hujan bulanan di 15 pos pengamatan di Indramayu. Selanjutnya, digunakan data input NCEP/NCAR reanalisis yang telah di-downscale menggunakan CCAM (dynamical downscaling) resolusi ~60 km  untuk wilayah Indonesia. Kombinasi dua metode ini (dynamical dan statistical downscaling) terbukti mampu meningkatkan akurasi prediksi curah hujan bulanan dan menurunkan nilai RMSEP di 15 pos pengamatan tersebut.

 

Selection of best predictor for 15 rain gauge station in Indramayu has been investigated using statistical downscaling method. The Singular Value Decomposition technique is applied using monthly rainfall data from GPCP and CMAP, and air pressure, precipitable water, sealevel air pressure, temperature zonal wind component from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as an input. From this method is shown that the zonal wind component is the best predictor to predict monthly rainfall at 15 rain gauge observation in Indramayu. Furthermore, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis downscaled using CCAM (dynamical downscaling, ~60 km resolution) is used as an input for Indonesia region. The combination of these two methods (dynamical dan statistical downscaling) proven the ability to increase monthly rainfall prediction accuracy and to reduce RMSEP values at these 15 raingauge observation site.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Downloads

Published

2011-04-15

How to Cite

Gunawan, D., & Linarka, U. A. (2011). PENENTUAN PREDIKTOR UNTUK PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN BULANAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING. Jurnal Meteorologi Dan Geofisika, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v12i1.89

Issue

Vol. 12 No. 1 (2011)

Section

Article

License

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.