IMPORTANCE OF UPDATING FOR MONTHLY RAINFALL PREDICTION BASED ON ECMWFs4

Authors

  • Achmad Maulana Rafi Malang Climatological Station
  • M. Ryan Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
  • A. Kurniawan Malang Climatological Station
  • E. F. Wua Malang Climatological Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v23i3.803

Keywords:

updating, monthly rainfall, verification, ECMWF

Abstract

There is uniqueness in climate services in East Java. Rainfall information is delivered as N-1 analysis for ongoing months N+1, N+2, and N+3 for monthly prediction. This study aims to investigate whether updating monthly predictions improves prediction accuracy. The verification method for this study is based on the percentage accuracy of the rain class category according to SNI 8196: 2015. The data used for this study is ECMWF's monthly rainfall prediction that has three lags system (1, 2, and 3). Rasters of monthly rainfall interpolation from the main rainfall observation (197 locations) in East Java from April 2015 to May 2020 (62 months) are used for the verification process. The temporal and spatial analysis then conducted using R (+ package raster). Studies based on the local governmental zone are also used. In general, the result shows that almost all months need updating, except April-September-October. Verification of ECMWFs4 shows a better verification result (0,56) in the past five years (2016-2020) for March. The regions that need monthly updating are Bawean island, the coast of Gresik, Pasuruan, and Banyuwangi

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Published

2022-06-14

How to Cite

Rafi, A. M., Ryan, M., Kurniawan, A., & Wua, E. F. (2022). IMPORTANCE OF UPDATING FOR MONTHLY RAINFALL PREDICTION BASED ON ECMWFs4. Jurnal Meteorologi Dan Geofisika, 23(3), 21–24. https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v23i3.803

Issue

Vol. 23 No. 3 (2022): Special Issue

Section

Article

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