ESTIMASI DATANGNYA KEMARAU PANJANG 2012/2013 BERBASIS HASIL ANALISIS KOMBINASI DATA ESPI DAN DMI

Authors

  • Eddy Hermawan Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional (LAPAN)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v12i1.79

Keywords:

ESPI, DMI, musim kering panjang

Abstract

Penelitian ini dibuat dengan tujuan utamanya menganalisis perilaku fenomena baru atmosfer yang merupakan hasil silang antara fenomena El-Niño yang diwakili oleh data ESPI (ENSO Precipitation Index) dengan DMI (Dipole Mode Index) sebagai mini ENSO-nya Indonesia untuk kawasan Pasifik Barat selama 29 tahun pengamatan periode Januari
1979 hingga Desember 2008. Berbasis kepada hasil analisis dengan menggunakan teknik analisis wavelet dan juga FFT (Fast Fourier Transform), kami mendapatkan bahwa osilasi baru tersebut berkisar sekitar 180 bulanan (~ 15 tahunan). Jika siklus ini berjalan sempurna
(tanpa ada faktor lain yang mengganggunya), maka berbasis kejadian tahun 1982 dan 1997, diperkirakan tahun 2012/2013 nanti, kita akan mengalami musim kering yang berkepanjangan seperti kejadian tahun 1997. Hasil ini tentunya masih perlu dipertajam lagi, seperti analisis siklus ke-24 matahari, selain pemanfaatan data emisi CO2 Indonesia.
Satu hal yang menarik dari penelitian ini adalah bahwa kawasan Sumatera Utara bagian utara, khususnya Aceh dan Medan, mereka nampaknya akan relatif aman dari bahaya (dampak) kering yang panjang, mengingat kawasan ini relatif basah sepanjang tahun hasil
analisis data GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) untuk analisis waktu pengamatan yang sama.

 

This research was made with the main objective is to analyze the behavior of new atmospheric phenomena as the result of the crossing between El-Niño phenomenon represented by the data ESPI with DMI for 29 years observation for period of January 1979 to December 2008. Based on the results of analysis using wavelet analysis techniques as well
as FFT, we find that the new oscillation ranges for about 180 monthly (~ 15 years). If the cycle is running perfectly (without any other factors that bothered it), then based on events in 1982 and 1997, estimated the year 2012/2013, we will experience a prolonged dry season like the 1997 incident. These results are of course still need to be sharpened again, such as the analysis of the 24 solar cycles, in addition to the utilization of CO2 emission data in Indonesia. One thing the interesting point of this research is that the northern part of North Sumatra region, especially Aceh and Medan, they appear to be relatively safe from harm (impact) the long dry, since this region is relatively wet throughout the year results of data analysis GPCP for the same time observation of data analysis.

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Published

2011-04-15

How to Cite

Hermawan, E. (2011). ESTIMASI DATANGNYA KEMARAU PANJANG 2012/2013 BERBASIS HASIL ANALISIS KOMBINASI DATA ESPI DAN DMI. Jurnal Meteorologi Dan Geofisika, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v12i1.79

Issue

Vol. 12 No. 1 (2011)

Section

Article

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