EFFECT OF THE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE TO DETECT CASE OF DENGUE FEVER IN INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v11i2.76Keywords:
demam berdarah, curah hujan, hari hujanAbstract
Hasil dari penelitian para pakar iklim menunjukkan bahwa suhu global termasuk di Indonesia cenderung meningkat dari waktu ke waktu, serta telah terjadi pergeseran variasi curah hujan di beberapa wilayah. Terjadinya variasi dan perubahan iklim akan mempengaruhi area perkembang biakan nyamuk. Situasi ini berdampak langsung terhadap munculnya kasus demam berdarah. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan prediksi kasus demam berdarah wilayah Jakarta berdasarkan data curah hujan, hari hujan, kasus demam berdarah pada bulan sebelumnya, dan asumsi bahwa pada tahun 2010 musim kemarau basah tidak terjadi, maka kasus demam berdarah pada tahun 2010 diperkirakan menurun dibandingkan tahun 2007-2009. Hal ini karena musim hujan di tahun 2009-2010 di DKI Jakarta cenderung berkurang dibandingkan dengan tahun 2007-2008 dan 2008-2009.
Dari hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kasus demam berdarah dapat dijadikan sebagai peringatan dini untuk dilakukan tindakan pencegahan kedepan, selain faktor alam (meteorologi) perlu juga dilakukan kajian sosial, budaya dan faktor lingkungan. Salah satu strategi untuk mengatasi kasus demam berdarah dapat dilakukan melalui koordinasi, kerjasama, dan kolaborasi antara pemerintah, peneliti dan masyarakat.
Results from climate experts researches showed that global temperature including in Indonesia tends to increase from time to time, as well as a shift in rainfall variation in some regions. The occurrence of variation and climate change will affect the growth areas of mosquitoes. This situation has a direct impact on the emergence of dengue fever cases.
In this research, prediction of dengue fever cases in the Jakarta region based on rainfall data, rainy days, cases of dengue fever in the previous month, and the assumption that in the year 2010 wet - dry season condition will not occur, Then the cases of dengue fever in the year 2010 is expected to decline compared years 2007-2009. This is because the rainy season in the years 2009-2010 in Jakarta is relatively reduced compared to the years 2007-2008 and 2008-2009.
From the results of the analysis showed that cases of dengue fever can be used as an early warning for future preventive action, in addition to natural factors (meteorology) should also be examined social, cultural and environment factors. One strategy for addressing cases of dengue fever can be done through coordination, cooperation and collaboration between government, researchers and the society.
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