PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN BULANAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE KALMAN FILTER DENGAN PREDIKTOR SST NINO 3.4 DIPREDIKSI

Authors

  • Restu Tresnawati Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Dan Geofisika (BMKG)
  • Tri Astuti Nuraini Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Dan Geofisika (BMKG)
  • Wido Hanggoro Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Dan Geofisika (BMKG)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v11i2.70

Keywords:

Kalman Filter, Prediksi SST, SST Nino 3, 4, ARIMA

Abstract

Prediksi Curah Hujan Bulanan di daerah Purbalingga telah dilakukan menggunakan metode Kalman Filter dengan Prediktor SST 3.4. Validasi terhadap prediksi tiga tahun kebelakang (hindcast) 2006, 2007, 2008 menunjukkan nilai koefisien korelasi mencapai 75%. Untuk memperoleh nilai prediktor SST Nino 3.4 diprediksi menggunakan metode ARIMA. Validasi prediksi SST Nino 3.4 selama tiga tahun periode pengujian menunjukkan pada tahun 2006 r=0.91, 2007 r=0.64 dan 2008 r=0.82.

 

Monthly Rainfall Prediction in the area Purbalingga been performed using the method of Kalman Filter with SST Predictor 3.4. Validation of predictions three years before (hindcast) 2006, 2007, 2008 showing the correlation coefficient reached 75%. To obtain Nino 3.4 SST predictor values predicted using ARIMA method. Validation of Nino 3.4 SST predictions for three-year testing period in 2006 showed r = 0.91, 2007 and 2008, r = 0.64 r = 0.82

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Published

2010-12-15

How to Cite

Tresnawati, R., Nuraini, T. A., & Hanggoro, W. (2010). PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN BULANAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE KALMAN FILTER DENGAN PREDIKTOR SST NINO 3.4 DIPREDIKSI. Jurnal Meteorologi Dan Geofisika, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v11i2.70

Issue

Vol. 11 No. 2 (2010)

Section

Article

License

Copyright (c) 2014 Restu Tresnawati, Tri Astuti Nuraini, Wido Hanggoro

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