APLIKASI ROC UNTUK UJI KEHANDALAN MODEL HYBMG

Authors

  • Kadarsah Kadarsah Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v11i1.60

Keywords:

ROC, forecast verification, contingency table

Abstract

Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) merupakan metode yang direkomendasikan oleh World Meteorological Organization (WMO) sebagai metode yang dapat mengindikasikan kemampuan probabilistik prediksi cuaca dan iklim. Metode ini diterapkan pada model HyBMG untuk menguji kehandalannya dengan cara memplotkan hit dan false-alarm rate. Uji kehandalan model ini menggunakan data curah hujan 10 tahun (1998-2007) pada 28 Daerah Prakiraan Musim (ZOM). Hasilnya berupa kurva ROC yang menunjukkan tingkat kehandalan model HyBMG dalam memprediksi curah hujan. Model HyBMG memiliki kehandalan dalam memprediksi curah hujan di beberapa daerah ZOM. Kurva ROC menunjukkan variasi kualitas sistem prediksi pada tingkat kepercayaan peringatan yang berbeda (probabilistik prediksi) dan dapat digunakan untuk optimalisasi nilai prediksi tertentu dari table kontigensi.

 

The relative operating characteristic (ROC), is being considered by the World Meteorological Organization as a recommended method to indicate the skill of probabilistic weather and climate forecasts.Reliability evaluation of HyBMG model has been done by using Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) which is created by plotting the hit and false-alarm rate. The Evaluation model is use rainfall data from only 28 climate regions over 10 years from 1998 to 2007. The result is ROC’s curve that describes the reliability HyBMG to predict rainfall. HyBMG has a reliability to predict the rainfall in a particular region. The ROC curve illustrates the varying quality of the forecast system at different levels of confidence in the warning (the forecast probability) and can be used to optimize forecast value given the specifics of an individual user’s contingency table.

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Published

2010-06-15

How to Cite

Kadarsah, K. (2010). APLIKASI ROC UNTUK UJI KEHANDALAN MODEL HYBMG. Jurnal Meteorologi Dan Geofisika, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v11i1.60

Issue

Vol. 11 No. 1 (2010)

Section

Article

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