Implementation of Tracking Algorithm for Mesoscale Convective Systems in Flood Disaster Events Over East Belitung, Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v25i1.1075Keywords:
tracking, mesoscale convective system, mesoscale convective complexes, east Belitung, heavy rainfallAbstract
Flooding is a significant problem with a high probability of affecting both people and infrastructure. Predicting floods is difficult because of its association with a quickly evolving convective system. Furthermore, simulating the dynamics of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is essential for enhancing our comprehension of the heavy precipitation systems that induce flooding. A flood in east Belitung on July 15, 2017, was suspected to have been caused by convective activity. The flood was preceded by persistent heavy rainfall from July 14 – 16, 2017, with the peak rainfall accumulation reaching >180 mm hr-1 on July 15, 18:00 UTC. This research aims to identify the type of storm system formed over the study area associated with heavy rainfall, simulate the propagation of MCSs, and increase the utilization of the algorithm detecting storms in Indonesia. We implemented the Tracking Algorithm for Mesoscale Convective Systems (TAMS) algorithm. TAMS allows for identifying, tracking, classifying, and variable-assigning to MCSs. TAMS integrates area-overlapping and projected-cloud-edge tracking approaches to enhance the likelihood of capturing the progression of the systems through time. We assigned the precipitation data from Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) to calculate corresponding statistics within the cloud area. We reveal that two cases of Convective Cloud Clusters (CCCs) were responsible for the persistent heavy rainfall. The 1st case occurred on July 14, 12:00 (initial) – July 15, 13:00 (dissipating) UTC, with an average eccentricity (ε) = 0.85 and initially formed around west Kalimantan propagated until southwest Sumatra. The 2nd case occurred on July 15, 14:00 – July 16, 08:00 UTC, average ε = 0.74, and initially formed at west Kalimantan and propagated until southwest Belitung. The pair of CCCs was triggered by a meso-low pressure and moist-warm air, which may have helped extend the lifetime of the CCCs. The elevated sea surface temperature (SST) around Belitung and northwest Kalimantan induces convective activity and forms clouds.References
C. S. Ramage, “ROLE O F A TROPICAL ‘ MARITIME CONTINENT ’ IN T,” no. June, pp. 365–370, 1968.
J. H. Qian, “Why precipitation is mostly concentrated over islands in the maritime continent,” J. Atmos. Sci., vol. 65, no. 4, pp. 1428–1441, 2008, doi: 10.1175/2007JAS2422.1.
V. Moron, A. W. Robertson, J. H. Qian, and M. Ghil, “Weather types across the Maritime Continent: From the diurnal cycle to interannual variations,” Front. Environ. Sci., vol. 2, no. JAN, pp. 1–19, 2015, doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2014.00065.
H. Satyawardhana and E. Yulihastin, “Interaksi El Nino, Monsun, dan Topografi Lokal Terhadap Anomali Hujan di Pulau Jawa,” Pus. Sains dan Teknol. Atmos., no. January, pp. 60–74, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309242925
B. LATOS et al., “Equatorial waves triggering extreme rainfall and floods in southwest sulawesi, indonesia,” Mon. Weather Rev., vol. 149, no. 5, pp. 1381–1401, 2021, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0262.1.
BNPB, “Bencana Banjir di Indonesia,” 2014. https://bnpb.go.id/berita/banjir (accessed Feb. 17, 2024).
S. Muis, B. Güneralp, B. Jongman, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward, “Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.,” Sci. Total Environ., vol. 538, pp. 445–457, Dec. 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.068.
BNPB, “Banjir Mengepung Beberapa Wilayah di Belitung dan Belitung Timur, Akses Jalan Putus,” 2017. https://bnpb.go.id/berita/banjir-mengepung-beberapa-wilayah-di-belitung-dan-belitung-timur-akses-jalan-putus (accessed Feb. 17, 2024).
R. ANNISYA and Y. Ishak, “KAJIAN DIMENSI SALURAN ‘KOLONG’ PADA KAWASAN DESA MEMPAYAK KECAMATAN DAMAR KABUPATEN BELITUNG TIMUR.” Universitas Bina Darma, 2019.
F. Sabri, T. Aulia, and M. Tresnanda, “Analisis banjir belitung timur,” Jurna penanggulangan bencana. Diakses pada Hari Jum’at 1 Maret 2019. Pukul 1035 WIB, pp. 3–8, 2017.
R. Agustira, “EVALUASI PROGRAM DRAINASE DALAM MITIGASI BENCANA BANJIR DI KABUPATEN BELITUNG TIMUR PROVINSI KEPULAUAN BANGKA BELITUNG.” IPDN, 2023.
J. M. Fritsch, R. J. Kane, and C. R. Chelius, “The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems to the Warm-Season Precipitation in the United States,” 1986. [Online]. Available: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:123478195
I. L. Jirak, W. Cotton, and R. L. McAnelly, “Satellite and Radar Survey of Mesoscale Convective System Development,” Mon. Weather Rev., vol. 131, pp. 2428–2449, 2003, [Online]. Available: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:18757564
W. R. Cotton, G. Bryan, and S. C. van den Heever, “Mesoscale Convective Systems,” Int. Geophys., vol. 99, no. C, pp. 455–526, 2011, doi: 10.1016/S0074-6142(10)09915-8.
S. Samanta, P. Murugavel, D. Gurnule, Y. J. Rao, J. Vivekanandan, and T. V. Prabha, “The Life Cycle of a Stationary Cloud Cluster during the Indian Summer Monsoon: A Microphysical Investigation Using Polarimetric C-Band Radar,” Mon. Weather Rev., vol. 149, no. 11, pp. 3761–3780, 2021, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0274.1.
J. L. Evans and F. A. Jaskiewicz, “Satellite-based monitoring of intraseasonal variations in tropical Pacific and Atlantic convection,” Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 28, no. 8, pp. 1511–1514, 2001, doi: 10.1029/1999GL011259.
D. E. Nuryanto, H. Pawitan, R. Hidayat, and E. Aldrian, “Characteristics of two mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the Greater Jakarta: case of heavy rainfall period 15–18 January 2013,” Geosci. Lett., vol. 6, no. 1, 2019, doi: 10.1186/s40562-019-0131-5.
E. Yulihastin, D. E. Nuryanto, Trismidianto, and R. Muharsyah, “Improvement of heavy rainfall simulated with sst adjustment associated with mesoscale convective complexes related to severe flash flood in luwu, sulawesi, indonesia,” Atmosphere (Basel)., vol. 12, no. 11, 2021, doi: 10.3390/atmos12111445.
K. Whitehall et al., “Exploring a graph theory based algorithm for automated identification and characterization of large mesoscale convective systems in satellite datasets,” Earth Sci. Informatics, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 663–675, 2015, doi: 10.1007/s12145-014-0181-3.
N. S. Putri, T. Hayasaka, and K. D. Whitehall, “The properties of mesoscale convective systems in Indonesia detected using the grab ‘em tag ‘em graph ‘em (GTG) algorithm,” J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, vol. 95, no. 6, pp. 391–409, 2017, doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2017-026.
D. E. Nuryanto, E. Aldrian, H. Pawitan, and R. Hidayat, “Application of graph-theory based algorithm for identifying convective complex systems over greater Jakarta basins,” in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, IOP Publishing, 2017, p. 12002.
K. M. Núñez Ocasio and Z. L. Moon, “TAMS: a tracking, classifying, and variable-assigning algorithm for mesoscale convective systems in simulated and satellite-derived datasets,” Geosci. Model Dev., vol. 17, no. 15, pp. 6035–6049, 2024, doi: 10.5194/gmd-17-6035-2024.
K. M. N. Ocasio, J. L. Evans, and G. S. Young, “Tracking mesoscale convective systems that are potential candidates for tropical cyclogenesis,” Mon. Weather Rev., vol. 148, no. 2, pp. 655–669, 2020, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0070.1.
N. Nishi, A. Hamada, and H. Hirose, “Improvement of Cirrus Cloud-Top height estimation using geostationary satellite split-window measurements trained with CALIPSO data,” Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., vol. 13, pp. 240–245, 2017, doi: 10.2151/sola.2017-044.
T. Kubota et al., “Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) Products in the GPM Era,” in Satellite Precipitation Measurement: Volume 1, V. Levizzani, C. Kidd, D. B. Kirschbaum, C. D. Kummerow, K. Nakamura, and F. J. Turk, Eds., Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020, pp. 355–373. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-24568-9_20.
R. A. Maddox and M. C. Complexes, “Mesoscale Convective Complexes Published by : American Meteorological Society locus on forasliog,” vol. 61, no. 11, pp. 1374–1387, 1980.
B. E. Mapes and R. A. Houze, “Cloud clusters and superclusters over the oceanic warm pool,” Mon. Weather Rev., vol. 121, pp. 1398–1415, 1993, [Online]. Available: https:// api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:129573130
V. Mathon and H. Laurent, “Life cycle of Sahelian mesoscale convective cloud systems,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 127, no. 572, pp. 377–406, 2001, doi: 10.1002/qj.49712757208.
G. Tsakraklides and J. L. Evans, “Global and Regional Diurnal Variations of Organized Convection,” J. Clim., vol. 16, no. 10, pp. 1562–1572, Oct. 2003, [Online]. Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/26249720
S. Good et al., “The current configuration of the OSTIA system for operational production of foundation sea surface temperature and ice concentration analyses,” Remote Sens., vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 1–20, 2020, doi: 10.3390/rs12040720.
N. G. Loeb et al., “Advances in Understanding Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Variability from Satellite Observations,” Surv. Geophys., vol. 33, no. 3–4, pp. 359–385, 2012, doi: 10.1007/s10712-012-9175-1.
H. Hersbach et al., “The ERA5 global reanalysis,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 146, no. 730, pp. 1999–2049, 2020, doi: 10.1002/qj.3803.
E. Aldrian and R. Dwi Susanto, “Identification of three dominant rainfall regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface temperature,” Int. J. Climatol., vol. 23, no. 12, pp. 1435–1452, 2003, doi: 10.1002/joc.950.
J. A. I. Paski, I. J. A. Saragih, D. S. Permana, M. I. Hastuti, A. Kristianto, and E. E. S. Makmur, “Simulation of land-sea breeze effect on the diurnal cycle of convective activity in the eastern coast of north sumatra using WRF model,” AGERS 2019 - 2nd IEEE Asia-Pacific Conf. Geosci. Electron. Remote Sens. Technol. Underst. Forecast. Dyn. Land, Ocean Marit. Proceeding, pp. 67–71, 2019, doi: 10.1109/AGERS48446.2019.9034301.
E. Yulihastin, T. W. Hadi, N. S. Ningsih, and M. R. Syahputra, “Early morning peaks in the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the northern coast of West Java and possible influencing factors,” Ann. Geophys., vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 231–242, 2020, doi: 10.5194/angeo-38-231-2020.
S. Koseki, T. Y. Koh, and C. K. Teo, “Effects of the cold tongue in the South China Sea on the monsoon, diurnal cycle and rainfall in the Maritime Continent,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 139, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:122224723
S. Mori et al., “Meridional march of diurnal rainfall over Jakarta, Indonesia, observed with a C-band Doppler radar: an overview of the HARIMAU2010 campaign,” Prog. Earth Planet. Sci., vol. 5, pp. 1–23, 2018.
M. H. M. Anip and M. A. Hisham, “The interannual and interdecadal variability of the Borneo vortex during boreal winter monsoon,” 2012. [Online]. Available: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:133467830
SUDIAR, “Kajian Kejadian Borneo Vortex Pada Saat Terjadi Fenomena Enso Study of Borneo Vortex Events At the Time of the Enso Phenomena Sudiar,” vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 31–41, 2023, [Online]. Available: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnecti
W. Tan, X. Wang, W. Wang, C. Wang, and J. Zuo, “Different responses of sea surface temperature in the South China Sea to various El Niño events during boreal autumn,” J. Clim., vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 1127–1142, 2016, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0338.1.
E. Yulihastin et al., “Evolution of double vortices induce tropical cyclogenesis of Seroja over Flores, Indonesia,” Nat. Hazards, vol. 117, no. 3, pp. 2675–2692, 2023, doi: 10.1007/s11069-023-05961-8.
Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan, “Rencana Strategis Direktorat Jenderal Planologi Kehutanan dan Tata Lingkungan 2020-2024,” 2017. https://pktl.menlhk.go.id/data_strategis
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Sanaullah Zehri
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
