Calibration Indonesian-Numerical Weather Prediction using Geostatistical Output Perturbation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v24i2.1037Keywords:
GOP, INA-NWP, temperatureAbstract
Indonesian-Numerical Weather Prediction (INA-NWP) is a numerical-based weather forecast method that has been
developed by the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency. However, the forecast is still unable to produce
accurate weather forecasts. Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) is a weather forecast method derived from only
one deterministic output. GOP takes into consideration the spatial correlation among multiple locations
simultaneously. GOP is capable to identify spatial dependency patterns that are associated with error models. This
study aims to obtain calibrated forecasts for daily maximum and minimum temperature variables using GOP at 10
meteorological stations in Surabaya and surrounding areas. The stages in performing temperature forecasts using GOP
are obtaining regression coefficient estimators, then calculating empirical semivariograms and estimating spatial
parameters. Based on several weather forecast indicators, such as RMSE and CRPS, GOP is better than INA-NWP in
terms of precision and accuracy.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Sutikno Sutikno, Fajar Dwi Cahyoko, Fernaldy Wananda Putra, Erwin Eka Syahputra Makmur, Wido Hanggoro, Muhamad Rifki Taufik, Vestiana Aza
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