Meteorological Water Scarcity Projection for 2021-2035 Based on CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Scenario in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta

Authors

  • Asshaffa Naim Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Aurelia Zerlinda Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Malinda Budi Oktaviani Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Pramuditya Vanesya Putri Febrian Abidin Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Emilya Nurjani Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Andung Bayu Sekaranom Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Etik Setyaningrum
  • Andriyas Aryo Prabowo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v25i1.1063

Keywords:

meteorological water balance, water demand, climate projection, climate change impacts

Abstract

Climate change can lead to an imbalance between water demand and supply, resulting in problems such as water scarcity. To avoid this, a projection of the level of water scarcity is needed. Water scarcity is calculated as the percentage of water demand to water supply. This research aims to determine the level of need, availability, and scarcity of meteorological water. This research uses meteorological water supply obtained through Thornthwaite- Mather water balance calculation from CMIP6 rainfall and temperature projection modeling data in SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios. CMIP6 data was corrected using distribution mapping and average ratios methods to improve the distribution and data values. Water demand indicators are reviewed from three sectors, namely domestic water demands, agricultural water demands, and livestock water demands. The water supply calculation results in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) show a pattern that fluctuates from year to year during the 2021-2035. Meanwhile, water demand continues to increase along with population growth. The level of water scarcity shows that, overall, DIY is classified as not critical to slightly critical in the SSP2 scenario and not critical to critical in the SSP5 scenario. The difference in the level of scarcity is influenced by socio-economic development and climate change mitigation efforts assumed in each scenario. By knowing the projected level of water scarcity, policymakers are expected to pursue appropriate climate change mitigation measures to actualize the best SSP scenario.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

M. Khoshoei, H. R. Safavi, and A. Sharma, “Water Supply Sustainability Revisited: Assessment Methodology for Multiple Water Resources,” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, vol. 149, no. 12, Oct. 2023, doi: 10.1061/jwrmd5.wreng-6072.

Y. Wijayanti, M. Fittkow, K. Budihardjo, N. Purwadi, and O. Setyandito, “Sustainable water management: a review study on integrated water supply (case study on special district of Yogyakarta),” IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 426, no. 1, p. 012056, Feb. 2020, doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/426/1/012056.

I. P. Santikayasa and D. O. Wiranta, "Supply-demand approaches for identifying the water scarcity index in Java Island, Indonesia," Journal of Water Resources, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 1–12, 2022, doi: 10.32679/jsda.v18i1.735.

F. P. Manullang, K. Tarigan, M. Situmorang, S. Humaidi, D. E. D. Doloksaribu, and Y. Darmawan, "Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Methods in North Sumatera," Prisma Sains: Jurnal Pengkajian Ilmu dan Pembelajaran Matematika dan IPA, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 1084–1101, Oct. 2023, doi: 10.33394/j-ps.v11i4.9961.

M. Zhang and X. Wei, “Deforestation, forestation, and water supply,” Science, vol. 371, no. 6533, pp. 990–991, Mar. 2021, doi: 10.1126/science.abe7821.

Millah, M. Z., “Analysis of Meteorological Water Availability to Fulfill the Domestic Water Needs of Residents in Malang Regency,” Journal of Geography Education and Science, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 1-9, 2019, doi: 10.21067/jpig.v4i2.3089.

Kendarto, D. R., Suryadi, E., Sampurno, R. M., & Putra, A., “Daya Dukung Sumberdaya Air dan Indeks Kekritisan Air Sub DAS Cisokan Hulu Water Carrying Capacity And Criticality Index Assessment On The Upper Cisokan Sub Watershed,” Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung, Vol, 10, no. 3, pp. 402-412, 2021.

Riyantara, Dionaldi, “Analisis Neraca Air DAS Batang Tebo,” 2023.

Rante, S., “Analysis of Water Availability and Needs for Environmental Support in Limbong Padang, Lembang Talimbangan, Buntupepasan District,” Journal Dynamic Saint, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 35-41, 2022, doi: 10.47178/dynamicsaint.v7i1.1446.

A. O. Oyerinde and H. E. Jacobs, "Determinants of household water demand: a cross-sectional study in South West Nigeria," Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 200, 2022, doi: 10.2166/washdev.2021.175.

S. Muliranti and M. P. Hadi, “Kajian Ketersediaan Air Meteorologis untuk Pemenuhan Kebutuhan Air Domestik di Provinsi Jawa Tengah dan DIY,” Jurnal Bumi Indonesia, vol. 2, no. 2, Jul. 2013.

Millah, M. Z., “Analisis ketersediaan air meteorologis untuk memenuhi kebutuhan air domestik penduduk di Kabupaten Malang,” JPIG (Jurnal Pendidikan dan Ilmu Geografi), vol 4, no. 2, pp. 1-9, 2019.

Z. Wang, Y. Huang, T. Liu, C. Zan, Y. Ling, and C. Guo, “Analysis of the Water Demand-Supply Gap and Scarcity Index in Lower Amu Darya River Basin, Central Asia,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 19, no. 2, p. 743, Jan. 2022, doi: 10.1126/science.abe7821.

O’Neill, B. C., Carter, T. R., Ebi, K., Harrison, P. A., Kemp-Benedict, E., Kok, K., ... & Pichs-Madruga, R., “Achievements and Needs for The Climate Change Scenario Framework,” Nature climate change, vol. 10, no. 12, pp. 1074-1084, 2020, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0.

D. Kirono and B. Salmon, "Study on the possibility of predicting the onset and rainfall of wet season in Yogyakarta Special Province, Indonesia," Indonesian Journal of Geography, vol. 52, no. 1, pp. 12–23, Jun. 2020, doi: 10.22146/IJG.57272.

BPS, DIY In Numbers 2019 (DIY Dalam Angka 2019), Yogyakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik, 2019.

C. Piani, J. O. Haerter, and E. Coppola, "Statistical Bias Correction for Daily Precipitation in Regional Climate Models over Europe," Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 187–192, 2010, doi: 10.1007/s00704-009-0134-9.

S. D. Jadmiko, D. Murdiyarso, and A. Faqih, “Koreksi Bias Luaran Model Iklim Regional untuk Analisis Kekeringan,” Jurnal Tanah Dan Iklim, vol. 41, no. 1, p. 25, Jun. 2020, doi: 10.21082/jti.v41n1.2017.25-35.

G. Lenderink, A. Buishand, and W. Van Deursen, “Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach,” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 1145–1159, May 2007, doi: 10.5194/hess-11-1145-2007.

C. W. Thornthwaite, “Instructions and tables for computing potential evapotranspiration and the water balance,” Climatology, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 185–311, Jan. 1957.

PUPR, Water Requirement Calculation Module (Modul Perhitungan Kebutuhan Air), Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat Republik Indonesia, 2015.

Badan Standardisasi Nasional, Penyusunan Neraca Sumber Daya - Bagian 1: Sumber Daya Air Spasial, Cibinong, 2002.

S. Laimeheriwa, M. Pangaribuan, and M. Amba, “Analisis Fenomena El Nino dan Dampaknya Terhadap Neraca Air Lahan di Pulau Ambon,” Jurnal Budidaya Pertanian, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 111–118, Dec. 2019, doi: 10.30598/jbdp.2019.15.2.111.

H. S. Endris, C. Lennard, B. Hewitson, A. Dosio, G. Nikulin, and G. A. Artan, “Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 52, no. 3–4, pp. 2029–2053, May 2018, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4239-7.

Z. Huang, X. Yuan, X. Liu, and Q. Tang, “Growing control of climate change on water scarcity alleviation over northern part of China,” Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, vol. 46, p. 101332, Feb. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101332.

J. Mardizal and T. Andayono, "Kebutuhan Air Irigasi", in Manajemen Irigasi dan Bangunan Air, First Edition, Purbalingga: Eureka Media Aksara, 2023.

J. Chen et al., “Alp-valley and elevation effects on the reference evapotranspiration and the dominant climate controls in Red River Basin, China: Insights from geographical differentiation,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 620, p. 129397, Mar. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129397.

L. W. Santosa, “Identification of Land Degradation and Method of Solution in Zone of Baturagung Hill at Gunung Kidul Regency,” Forum Geografi, vol. 19, no. 1, p. 30, Jul. 2017, doi: 10.23917/forgeo.v19i1.4571.

V. Arida, “Konservasi Air Di Kabupaten Gunungkidul Provinsi Yogyakarta Untuk Pengelolaan Lingkungan Berkelanjutan,” Community Development, vol. 6, no. 2, p. 95, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.21043/cdjpmi.v6i2.17358.

A. Saputro, C. Sukamta, and H. Sulistyani, “Identification And Analysis Of The Sink Holes Characteristic In The Area Of The New Road Construction Project, Jerukwudel-Baran-Duwet, Gunung Kidul, DIY,” Media Ilmiah Teknik Sipil, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 59-68, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.33084/mits.v10i1.3100.

Downloads

Published

2025-03-28

How to Cite

Naim, A., Zerlinda, A., Oktaviani, M. B., Abidin, P. V. P. F., Nurjani, E., Sekaranom, A. B., … Prabowo, A. A. (2025). Meteorological Water Scarcity Projection for 2021-2035 Based on CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Scenario in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Jurnal Meteorologi Dan Geofisika, 25(1), 57–68. https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v25i1.1063

Issue

Vol. 25 No. 1 (2024)

Section

Article

License

Copyright (c) 2024 Asshaffa Naim, Aurelia Zerlinda, Malinda Budi Oktaviani, Pramuditya Vanesya Putri Febrian Abidin, Emilya Nurjani, Andung Bayu Sekaranom, Etik Setyaningrum, Andriyas Aryo Prabowo

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.